We sold our $Yen and German Dax long and bought back our Euro$ short to close all our positions on the last day of the month. We expect December to be volatile as the markets and central banks adjust to a Trump presidency.
We are grateful for the exceptional year and not having to trade in December. The challenge for the central banks are the markets will trade to future expectations where the central banks must adjust policy on actual cash flows. That being said, we do not expect the Federal Reserve to tighten in December 2016 because the inflationary pressures of fiscal and regulatory easing will not yet be in place. This will be a courageous move by the Fed, they could easily claim fame for “full employment” and claim the Phillips curve expects future inflation and tighten another 25bp and be done with it. However, the Federal Open Market Committee with the leadership of Janet Yellen, recognizes the economy has further to go before tightening another 25bp. The FOMC recognizes that “full employment” has a non-linear relationship with the participation rate so full employment has not yet been reached. In addition, the FOMC has recognized the old economic models have been less than accurate for predicting inflation in a global economy.
I have spent the year contacting Janet Yellen and some on the FOMC about the non-linear relationship of the Impact of Monetary Policy and now I am ready to share my white paper, Monetary Policy in a Global Economy with the mathematics to support it. The white paper is grounded in the mathematics of the Natural Equilibrium of Interest Rates which is ruled by the behavior of interest rates and excess bank reserves. The conclusion being fed funds should naturally be at 0% and the Fed should normalize by unwinding its balance sheet and use the equilibrium of excess bank reserves to raise interest rates. Also, I will gladly share this paper with my high school classmate, Steven Mnuchin, who should be congratulated for taking on such a challenging role as US Treasury Secretary.
On Friday, November 30th on the close we unwound all our positions. We sold $Yen at 114.40, the German Dax at equivalent index price of 10,640 and bought back the Euro$ at 106. We currently have no positions.
In 2012 modeled performance (7 ½ mo.) net of all fees was +12.46% with a 10% Hurdle rate
In 2013, modeled performance net of all fees was +19.73% with a 10% Hurdle rate
In 2014, modeled performance net of all fees was +56.42% with a 10% Hurdle rate
In 2015, modeled performance net of all fees is +72.68% with an 8% Hurdle rate
In 2016, modeled performance net of all fees is +52.12% with a Graduated 10% Hurdle Rate
The Unicorn Macro Fund, LP (“Fund”) operates under the SEC rules of 506(c) of Regulation D. This rule allows general solicitation as long as all purchasers of the Fund are accredited investors and the Fund takes reasonable steps to verify that purchasers are accredited investors. The 506(c) rule benefits funds that perform better than their peers, because for the first time, Regulation D funds can post their results publicly.
The Fund trades both long and short positions in a variety of global markets and its performance is not correlated to any one market. Performance of the model of the Fund is measured by Net Asset Value (NAV) which is net of all fees, is unaudited, and may include the use of estimates. Individual results will vary based on the timing of an investment and past performance is no guarantee of future results and there is a possibility of loss.
The modeled results are based only on capital appreciation from macro style trades. The results do not include dividend reinvestment or any other form of cash flow and are taxed as ordinary income. All trades have a risk/reward objective of at least 3 to 1 and each full position risks no more than 2% of assets. There will be times when market conditions may alter these objectives. Since the inception of the model our trading of the methodology has become more precise.